Once again we had the distinct honor of having Cindy Carroll, Florida State Certified Residential Real Estate Appraiser, as a guest speaker at the Coldwell Banker monthly business meeting at The Naples Area Board of Realtors. Cindy came chock-full of good information and reliable market statistics. I would like to share some of the highlights of her talk, much of which is based on data derived from our local multiple listing system, and is a reflection of supply and demand.
One of the interesting points that Cindy made was to identify the 4 tiers of sellers in today’s market:
It is relatively easy to extract whether a neighborhood is “in-balance” based on supply and demand. If the number of listings is equal to the number of sales in the last 12 months, it is a “balanced” market. In some cases, which I will discuss in this post, the absorption rate is less than a year. Any areas or price ranges, carrying 2 or more years of supply, are still experiencing downward pressure on pricing.
Another interesting point to consider is this: In Naples, approximately 60% of the closed sales are cash transactions. Cash buyers, especially with today’s strict financing guidelines, allow our market to “move along“.
Here are a few neighborhood observations:
Aqualane Shores: was at the “top of the market” in February of 2005 with less than a 4 month supply of houses on the market. In April of 2007 there was a 3.5 year supply. Currently there is approximately an 18 month supply, which has been virtually unchanged in about 2 years. Presently 37 “actives”, 5 homes under contract [pending], and 21 closed sales in the past 12 months.
NA 06 [Old Naples]: Presently there is only a 10 month supply of single family homes for sale in Old Naples. This area peaked in February of 2005 with a 5 month supply. In December of 2008 there was a 3.2 year supply. There was a “balance” market reported for the first time in approximately 4 years in September 2011.
NA15, the area between US 41 and Goodlette Road, is “on fire“! Currently there are only 26 active listings…27 “pendings” and 92 closed sales in the past 12 months!
NA 05 [Coquina Sands, The Moorings and Park Shore]: In September 2005 there was a 6 month supply…In September of 2007 there was a 4 year supply! Today’s inventory is only a 7 month supply! Great recovery!
Pelican Bay is one of the least variable neighborhoods. It never really got “over-supplied”, and never had the short sales and foreclosure numbers of other communities. In September of 2009 there was a 2.5 year supply, but the market has been balanced for awhile and presently there are 34 active single family homes, 13 under contract and 31 closings in the past 12 months.
Royal Harbor has one of the best stories in town! Just to give you a history of the area, in September of 2004 there was only a 3 month supply…In April of 2007 there was a 9.6 year absorption rate…As Cindy put it, “it was dreadful!” By November 2010 the Royal Harbor area had improved to a a 3 year supply, which still wasn’t great. Presently there are only 25 homes for sale, 16 pendings and 29 closed sales in the last 12 months. This equates to approximately a 10 month supply…a remarkable comeback!
Vanderbilt Beach area: A year ago had a 2+ year supply of inventory, presently only an 8 month supply.
Golden Gate Estates: NA 22, the Logan Woods and Oaks Blvd corridor, has been “artificially depressed” due to land values and the inability to finance vacant lots, but the single family home market presented itself with a shortage of inventory by November 2010, and today there is a very healthy 9 month supply!
The Grey Oaks single family market is “a bit of a mystery”…In September of 2005 there was less than a 6 month supply. In October of 2011 there was nearly a 4 year supply. Currently there are 43 actives and only 14 closed sales in the past 12 months.
The meeting ended on a high note. Predictions were made: Many neighborhoods will be back to our “last point of sanity“, 2004 prices, by year’s end. ~And, it is probable that values will go up 10% in the next 12 months! In any event, whether you are inclined to be optimistic or not, the facts speak volumes. Inventory is down in most neighborhoods, demand is great, interest rates are at record lows…The short sales and foreclosures are “clearing out”. It’s a great time to buy Naples Real Estate! Of course, as with any data, each isolated neighborhood, and types of housing in each area, should be evaluated on its own. The Harris Peppe Team welcomes your comments and questions. Please call us if you would like additional information in a particular location in Naples. 239.370.0574
Thank you, and make it a great day,
The Naples Real Estate Blogger