“Recovery to Normalcy”

Posted on February 22, 2011

Today I had the distinct pleasure of being in the audience and listening to Dr. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for The National Association of Realtors. He spoke for nearly two hours. In addition to the 7 pages of copious notes that I took during his lecture, I will eventually have access to his power point presentation, as will all those who were in attendance. This will also include his charts and graphs, which I will share a link to at a later date. Some of this may lose a little bit in the translation without those graphs, but I will do my very best to post a few of his top talking points and statistics that I believe will be of interest. Although Dr. Yun’s presentation was seamless, my recap likely will not be. Obviously, the seminar included many statistics and graphs charting the United States economy and Home Sales, but I will try to concentrate on those topics which will effect real estate values locally, here in Naples.Here are a few:The present population of the state of Florida is approximately 18 million. This is projected to double in the next 20 years.If the pattern of new jobs created in Naples, as documented in the past 20 years, were to stay on its same pattern, not withstanding the short term fluctuation of 2008-2010, jobs in Naples will also double in the next 20 years. The “normal” migration to Florida, particularly the huge number of baby boomers, among them the more comfortably wealthy, will begin to increase again in 2011. [more people left Florida than entered in both 2008 & 2009-and 2010 was virtually even.] Newly built inventory in South Florida is at a 40 year low. New housing start permits in Collier County numbered about 1,000 per year for the last 3 years vs. an average of over 6,000+ in the previous 4 years. Currently, the cost of constructing a new home is higher than buying a newer resale. Buyers wanting newer homes will have to buy resales in most cases. Upcoming tighter mortgage regulations as well as the expectancy of home loan rates increasing in 2012 will prohibit some buyers without cash from purchasing. Nationwide, there have been no meaningful changes in Home Price Trends, they have gone ‘sideways’ for approximately 12 months. However there are some “wildcard” markets that may even see a 10-15% increase in prices after the 2008-2010 over-correction. Naples fits into this category!

Overall, the outlook was very bright for Florida, and specifically a recovery in Southwest Florida! Dr. Yun also touched on the influx of foreign buyers coming to Florida, consumer confidence levels, unemployment, business investments and commercial real estate, mortgage defaults and governments bail-outs.

Dr. Yun ended the seminar with two quotes, and this discussion: The countries in the world that prosper are those which encourage and support home ownership. He spoke from the heart of his own memories of his birth country, South Korea–the fact that the one true thing that separated the ideology of his homeland and North Korea was home ownership. He compared this to a current news maker and mentioned the fact that 90% of Egyptians do not have title to their homes. He said he believed there had been two ‘transformational’ Presidents in our modern history…and these were the quotes:

A nation of homeowners is unconquerable.” ~FDR

We will preserve the part of the American dream which mortgage interest deduction symbolizes.” ~Ronald Reagan

Thank you for your time. Make it a great day,

The Naples Real Estate Blogger