Overvalued Housing Market?

Posted on November 09, 2023


Overvalued Housing Market?

Everyone is taking about it, and there doesn’t seem to be a “one size fits all” answer to the question, Is the Naples Housing Market Overvalued? Recently in an article published by, I found a pretty good explanation to this question which seems to be coming up more and more often. Especially with the upward pressure of housing prices, those first-time home-buyers, service industry workers and their families, and snowbirds on a more ‘fixed’ income, cannot seem to find a place to hang their hat in SW Florida…Here’s a portion of that article:

The debate over whether the housing market is overvalued is intensifying, with differing opinions among experts. Some experts argue that home prices are significantly inflated and anticipate a correction, while others contend that the high prices are justified due to the strong demand, even with mortgage rates nearing 8%. Data from an August analysis by Florida Atlantic University and Florida International University researchers indicates that homes in 98 out of the 100 largest housing markets are selling above their long-term prices, suggesting overvaluation, particularly in the Sun Belt states.

A housing shortage is widely seen as the driving force behind the high prices, as there are not enough properties to meet the demand, resulting in bidding wars and escalating offers. While some acknowledge the affordability crisis, they argue that the market is not necessarily overvalued due to the immense demand. The fear of buying at the market’s peak has led some potential buyers to wait, as timing the market remains challenging. Mortgage rates and incomes also play a significant role in determining whether real estate is overvalued, with high-interest rates making today’s prices less attractive. However, if rates decrease, it could stimulate more buyer activity and further price increases. Some make the argument that interest rates were this high 20+ years ago, but they fail to mention one could buy a home or condo in Naples in the late 90’s for $100,000! I believe that makes it a weak argument; just do the math. Despite concerns about overvaluation, most experts do not foresee a housing crash like the one during the Great Recession, as today’s market is characterized by a shortage of homes and more qualified borrowers.

That said, we are seeing some homes and condos in Naples selling quickly, at or above asking prices within days of going on the market, while others are languishing on the market, particularly those areas along the gulf corridor; possibly a result of last year’s hurricane. [?] Some of our buyers are mentioning price resistance, even before they arrive. Many keep tabs on the inventory either on one of the national real estate search engines, or on our website Others see the value in moving to the Sunshine State and consider it a bargain; low taxes and great weather along with so many other factors keep Naples desirable. Construction costs have gone up, and we still see a depleted employee dilemma, contributing to some of the vacant lots sitting on the market longer than the average ‘days on market’ per the local MLS, particularly in the downtown Naples area, as well as waterfront and some luxury communities. We have been suggesting getting a Florida State Licensed Appraiser when listing properties that are difficult to price. No one has a crystal ball, but appraisals help with pricing.

Let us know if you want information about a particular community here in SW Florida. The Harris | Peppe | Wells Team is waiting to assist you in all your real estate needs!

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